Core Axioms and Rules of Probability
Probability theory evaluates the mathematical certainty of events on a normalized interval [0, 1]. The foundational rules govern how individual probabilities combine for joint, disjoint, and conditional outcomes.
1. Addition Rule (Union P(A ∪ B))
P(A ∪ B)=P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
2. Multiplication Rule (Intersection P(A ∩ B))
P(A ∩ B)=P(A) × P(B|A)=P(A) × P(B)(if independent)
3. Complement & "At Least One" Rule
P(≥ 1 success in n trials)=1 − (1 − p)ⁿ
Step-by-Step Calculation Breakdown (Example: Rolling at least one 6 in 4 rolls)
Step 1: Determine Probability of Failure per Trial (1 − p)
• Success p = 1/6 ≈ 0.1667
• Failure (not rolling a 6) q = 1 − 1/6 = 5/6 ≈ 0.8333
Step 2: Probability of 0 Successes in 4 Trials (q⁴)
• P(0 sixes) = (5/6)⁴ = 625 / 1296 ≈ 0.4823 (48.23%)
Step 3: Subtract from 1 for Complement (At Least One)
• P(≥ 1 six in 4 rolls) = 1 − 0.4823 = 0.5177 (51.77%)
Probability vs Odds Reference Table
| Event Description | Probability P | Percentage | Odds For | Odds Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin Flip (Heads) | 0.5000 | 50.0% | 1 : 1 (Even) | 1 : 1 |
| Single Die (Roll 6) | 0.1667 | 16.67% | 1 : 5 | 5 : 1 |
| Draw an Ace (Standard Deck) | 0.0769 | 7.69% | 1 : 12 | 12 : 1 |
| Draw a Spade | 0.2500 | 25.0% | 1 : 3 | 3 : 1 |
| Rolling Pair of Sixes (2 Dice) | 0.0278 | 2.78% | 1 : 35 | 35 : 1 |